Equity Investments: August 2019

The current Australian PM is ousted! Australia is anti-china still. Mahathir cannot get any concession from China. US inflation is increasing rapidly because of Trump. Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge will soon open! The new Noble Group continues to be not viable! Mahathir already is old and senile! Mahathir is old and senile already!

PART 2 follows the same course as the initial investment and it is the source of the “multiplier effect”. 1,000,000 dollars are burning up a hole in a lot of people’s wallets who’ve been doing without for a long period. What exactly are they going to do with it? Spend it of voila and course, the multiplier impact.

Why, because effectively, the amount of money these people are spending is a fresh investment. I modeled this feature as well by assuming what money was left after taxes was all spent on consumption; not just a great assumption always, but it easier made my math. 160,000 worth, generally from the infusion of the million dollars. I structured this on some Air Force base Economic Resource Impact Resource reports I was associated with during my bottom closure times.

  • 2011 30.8% 26.2%
  • Development research necessary to support desired new focus on product/market collection
  • 23/50 14 July 2019
  • Dishwasher – 8 years
  • Mortgage interest paid on over $750,000 in home loans
  • Political Donations

From that you can go back up to my steps and follow the process. I kept duplicating this process until the amount of improvement became too small to matter much; about 31 iterations. So, what were my results? 2,920,572.32 in additional spending. I also didn’t factor in the savings in unemployment payments for those brought off the unemployment rolls, probably about 17 total employees worth.

So now you’re asking, how accurate are my numbers? So I do some checking, Wikipedia mainly. The key, of course, is what are some comparative multiplier amounts. First, let me say, I understand my 2.9 is high, many simplifying assumptions too. For instance, assuming 100% of labor income is spent on consumption is obviously not correct, it’ll be lower than that obviously, which, subsequently, would lower the worthiness of the multiplier. But, all-in-all, as rough as my assumptions were I am delighted rather, it at least verified my strategy which, for an analyst, is always a very important thing. So, I am at least in the ballpark, a big one no doubt, but in one nevertheless.

The Obama stimulus would be like the lump-sum tax rebate on the lot of steroids because of its size and the prospective audience, unemployed people. You will observe that the stimulus that experienced the largest impact was an increase in food stamps. I believe it is because it was targeted at the group who would be probably to convert the stimulus into usage. Both the Obama stimulus and the tax rebate would convert as well almost. The least effective stimulus, at .23, that translates into increased usage are broad-based tax slashes, sorry Conservatives. 75,000/yr will spend the majority of what the receive on the type of consumption that truly helps the economy.

The upper-end of the economic level, the ones who received the most take advantage of the Bush tax trim, don’t spend on things that help the American economy, they don’t spend on basic consumption. Those types of expenditures are already accounted for with what they already make. This is gratuitous income, income to invest on non-essentials such as diamonds, trips abroad, mink coats, however, not enough additional income for true investment in businesses to grow America. Further, those who oppose stimulus claim that stimulus’ simply don’t work, the multiplier effect can be an urban myth. Well, however, they are sometimes right.

It is unfortunate because the fact that they are sometimes right is used as a wedge to say, as they often do, that it’s true the time all. But, to be full disclosure of the days a stimulus won’t work is when it competes with private industry investments taking place at the same time or it does increase rates of interest or price levels. Regarding the Obama Stimulus, which the naysayers will not tell you for apparent reasons, none of the situations apply. Private industry was, and is, staying on the sidelines, interest rates remain at an all-time low, and price levels are stable; so, the naysayers, the Conservatives, are useless wrong. Now, do Obama’s stimulus work?